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Lucy finds a text message on her phone—not from her boyfriend James
working with the advisor and committee
For the first time in thirteen centuries
an ancient duel of magical skill
Set over the course of one school year in 1986
Superforecasting Condition:Very Good Lucy finds a text messageWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was
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